Abstract:
Desertlocust(Schistocercagregaria)infestationscausesignificantdamagetocropsandpastureland,impedingfoodsecurityandlivelihoodsglobally.Inrecentyears,someEastAfricancountrieshavesufferedseveredesertlocustoutbreaks,causingsignificantharmtoagricultureandlocalcommunities.Tocomprehensivelyunderstandandmitigatethesocio‐economicimpactsofthispest,anintegratedassessmentapproachiscrucial.Thisstudyproposesanintegratedassessmentmodelthatcombinesecological,economic,andsocialdimensionstoanalyzethemultifacetedimpactsofthedesertlocustontherateofurbanizationchanges,farmingexpansion,andfoodproductionandhowtheyleadtofoodunavailability(demand,supply,andprice)andfoodandnutritioninsecurityinEasternAfrica.Asystemdynamics‐basedassessmentmodelwasfirstdevelopedforSudanusingthedynamicrelationsamongthefactorsandtheirvariationsovertimeandhowtheyaffectthesocio‐economicvariables.ThedevelopedmodelwasusedtospatiallysimulatetheimpactsovertheentireEasternAfrica.Variousscenarioswerefurthersimulatedandanalyzed,incorporatingdifferentpolicyoptionstoeffectivelymitigatetheimpacts.Resultsdemonstratedthatinallthecountries,desertlocustsextensivelycontributetotheslowingdownoffarmingexpansionandfoodproductionandsupply.Consequently,thesefactorsleadtoincreasedurbanizationratesthroughpeoplerural‐urbanmigrationandfooddemandatdifferentmagnitudesacrossdifferentcountries.Byconsideringbothshort‐termandlong‐termeffects,thisapproachaimstoprovidepolicymakers,researchers,andpractitionerswithaholisticunderstandingofthecomplexdynamicsinvolvedandinformeffectivemanagementstrategies.Forexample,communitiesequippedwithaccuratebreedingdetectiontoolsandemployinganintegratedpestmanagementstrategycombiningchemicalpesticidesandbiopesticideshadthehighestpotentialforeffectivelymitigatingthefutureimpactsofdesertlocustsforenhancingcommunitylivelihood
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