Predicting the Habitat Suitability and Distribution of Two Species of Mound-Building Termites in Nigeria Using Bioclimatic and Vegetation Variables

Abstract

Temperature is an important factor determining the abundance, distribution and diversity of termite species. Thus, termites are affected by changing climate and have to adopt different means of surviving in order to avoid extinction. Using termite occurrence data, bioclimatic variables and vegetation cover, we modelled and predicted the current and future habitat suitability for mound-building termites in Nigeria. Of the 19 bioclimatic variables and the vegetation index (NDVI) tested, only six were significant and eligible as predictors of habitat suitability for the mound-building termites Macrotermes subhyalinus and M. bellicosus. Under current climatic conditions (2022), the northwest, northeast and central regions are highly suitable for M. subhyalinus, while the distribution of M. bellicosus decreased in the North West, North East and in the Central region. However, regarding habitat suitability for the future (2050), there was a predicted range expansion into suitable areas for the two termite species. The increase in temperature due to global warming has an effect which can either result in migration or sometimes extinction of termite species within an ecosystem. Here, we have predicted habitat suitability for the two mound-building termite species under current and future climatic scenarios, and how the change in climatic variables would lead to an expansion in their range across Nigeria.