Estimating the Demographic Parameters of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Using Temperature-Dependent Development Models and Their Validation under Fluctuating Temperature

Abstract

The tomato leafminer, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is an invasive pest that devastates the production of tomatoes and other solanaceous vegetables. Since its transAtlantic invasion in 2006, T. absoluta has spread and established in many countries across the AfroEurasian Supercontinent, causing huge yield losses. This study aimed to determine the relationship between temperature and the life history traits of T. absoluta and provide the thermal thresholds for development using life cycle modelling. Linear and non-linear models were fitted to life table data collected at five constant temperatures of 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 ◦C, with Relative Humidity 70 ± 5% and photoperiod 12L:12D. Another experiment was conducted at fluctuating temperatures to validate the laboratory results. Tuta absoluta completed its life cycle at temperatures between 15 and 35 ◦C.The development time ranged between 4.0–11 days, 6.3–16.0 days, and 5.4–20.7 days for egg, larva,and pupa, respectively. The lowest thermal threshold was estimated at 8.10, 7.83, and 11.62 ◦C,respectively for egg, larva, and pupa. While the optimum temperature for T. absoluta immature stages survival and female fecundity were predicted at a temperature range of 21–23 ◦C. The intrinsic rate of increase (rm), gross reproductive (GRR), and net reproductive (Ro) rates were significantly higher at temperatures between 20–25 ◦C. The model validation outcome showed similarities between observed and simulated values for development time, mortality rate, and life table parameters,attesting to the quality of the phenology model. Our results will help in predicting the effect of climate warming on the distribution and population dynamics of T. absoluta. Furthermore, the results could be used to develop management strategies adapted to different agroecological zones