Green Oak Leaf Roller Moth Dynamics: An Application of Discrete time Mathematical Models

Abstract

Discrete mathematical model is selected for description of green oak leaf roller (Tortrix viridana L.) population dynamics. Experimental data set from Rubtsov [Rubtsov, V.V., 1992. Models of Oscillation Processes in Forest Ecosystems, Forest Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation, p. 39 (in Russian)] is analyzed from the standpoint of phenomenological theory of forest insect population dynamics [Isaev, A.S., Khlebopros, R.G., Nedorezov, L.V., Kiselev, V.V., Kondakov, Yu. P., 1984. Dynamics of Forest Insects Populations, USSR, Nauka, Novosibirsk, p. 224 (in Russian); Isaev, A.S., Khlebopros, R.G., Nedorezov, L.V., Kiselev, V.V., Kondakov, Yu.P., Soukhovol’sky, V.G., 2001. Population Dynamics of Forest Insects, Russian Federation, Nauka, Moscow, p. 347 (in Russian)]. For checking hypotheses confidence for fitting of experimental time series, Moran–Ricker model, Maynard Smith–Slatkin model, and some others are used. Selection of statistical criteria for estimating parameter’s values is discussed. In addition, probabilities of realizations of several dynamical regimes are estimated.